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		<title>What happens if the RMB revalues?</title>
		<link>http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=164</link>
		<comments>http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=164#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Oct 2010 08:37:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>mpettis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[— Market view]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=164</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Beijing may allow much faster appreciation of the renminbi over the next year, but this will almost certainly be accompanied with policies that reduce the adverse employment impact of appreciation.  In my opinion the most likely such policy involves credit.  If Beijing expands cheap credit, however, it may exacerbate dangerous imbalances within the economy.
Before explaining, [...]]]></description>
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		<title>The Politics of Chinese Adjustment</title>
		<link>http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=161</link>
		<comments>http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=161#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Sep 2010 08:42:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>mpettis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[— Market view]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=161</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I am often asked, especially by my Peking University students, to list what I think is the sequence of steps China will take to address its economic imbalances.  I always respond that even if I were smart enough to know the optimal sequence, it would nonetheless be very difficult to make any reasonable prediction since [...]]]></description>
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		<title>Rumors on the PBoC deregulating Chinese bank deposit rates</title>
		<link>http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=156</link>
		<comments>http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=156#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Sep 2010 00:56:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>mpettis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[— Market view]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=156</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
After three weeks of traveling it is good to be back in Beijing, even though now I have to work through the mountain of very fattening mooncakes my very kind students have given me for Mid-Autumn Festival Day.  While I was away it seems that there were a lot of rumors in the market about [...]]]></description>
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		<title>What do the “good” trade numbers tell us?</title>
		<link>http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=154</link>
		<comments>http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=154#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 11 Sep 2010 00:54:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>mpettis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[— Market view]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=154</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
I apologize for taking so long to write but for the past rwo weeks (and the next five days) I have been travelling for conferences and meetings.  I spent last week in Buenos Aires at the 75th Anniversary Conference of the Banco Central de la Republica Argentina, where I gave a presentation on China and [...]]]></description>
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		<title>Have we underestimated Chinese consumption?</title>
		<link>http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=153</link>
		<comments>http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=153#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 28 Aug 2010 00:54:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>mpettis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[— Market view]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=153</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On August 8 Credit Suisse published a study they had commissioned by Professor Wang Xiaolu of the China Reform Foundation.  A lot of readers have asked on- and offline me to discuss this study in light of the entry I posted two weeks ago about Chinese consumption – and especially to explain whether this study [...]]]></description>
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		<title>Chinese consumption and the Japanese “sorpasso”</title>
		<link>http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=110</link>
		<comments>http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=110#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Aug 2010 07:55:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>mpettis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[— Market view]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[There has been a lot of excited press commentary recently about China’s overtaking Japan as the world’s second largest economy.  China’s GDP should be larger than Japan’s for the first time sometime this year, which in a similar context in 1987 the Italians called “il sorpasso”.  For all the excited search for the deeper meaning [...]]]></description>
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		<title>The PBoC can’t easily raise interest rates</title>
		<link>http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=108</link>
		<comments>http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=108#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Jul 2010 07:55:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>mpettis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[— Market view]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=108</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
A lot of people have asked me to write about the recently “leaked” CBRC report on dodgy local government debt.  Here is what the article in Monday’s Bloomberg had to say about it (and note especially that delicious second paragraph):
Mainland banks may struggle to recoup about 23 per cent of the 7.7 trillion yuan (HK$8.81 [...]]]></description>
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		<title>Do sovereign debt ratios matter?</title>
		<link>http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=106</link>
		<comments>http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=106#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Jul 2010 07:54:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>mpettis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[— Market view]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=106</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
In the past few weeks I have been getting a lot of questions about serial sovereign defaults and how to predict which countries will or won’t suspend debt payments or otherwise get into trouble.  The most common question is whether or not there is a threshold of debt (measured, say, against total GDP) above which [...]]]></description>
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		<title>The capital tsunami is a bigger threat than the nuclear option</title>
		<link>http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=104</link>
		<comments>http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=104#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Jul 2010 07:53:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>mpettis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[— Market view]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=104</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
Since this is another long posting, it might make sense to summarize briefly its two parts.  In the first part, expanding on an OpEd piece of mine published by the Wall Street Journal on Monday, I argue that China’s “nuclear option”, which has generated a great deal of nervousness among investors and policy-making circles in [...]]]></description>
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		<title>What do banking crises have to do with consumption?</title>
		<link>http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=124</link>
		<comments>http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=124#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 04 Jul 2010 07:59:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>mpettis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[— Market view]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sywg.com.hk/blog/?p=124</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
Just three days after returning to Beijing from New York, I had to leave again, this time  to a series of conferences in Torino, Italy, so it is hard to do much writing for my blog, especially since I won’t spend my free time in the hotel when there is so damned much food out [...]]]></description>
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